REITs vs XLRE

FOOT

Sector rotation · Where money moved

Week-over-week % change · Oct 2 → Oct 9 close
ETF · Sector
+/- % from prior week
90-day trend
XLUUtilities
+3.97%
XLEEnergy
+3.61%
XLPConsumer Staples
+3.60%
XLVHealth Care
+2.79%
XLYConsumer Discretionary
+2.55%
XLFFinancials
+2.32%
XLREReal Estate
+1.96%
XLBMaterials
+1.17%
XLCCommunication Services
+0.05%
XLIIndustrials
-0.41%
XLKTechnology
-0.52%

Gold line = XLRE — shown under each sector so you can compare its 90-day path against real estate.

Real estate gained 2.0%, but utilities, energy and staples led while tech fell — a defensive, rate-sensitive rotation, not a broad risk rally.

90 day sparklines use dividend adjusted Friday closes, Jul 10 - Oct 9; both lines rebased to 100.

FOOT

XLRE vs rates

90-day paths, rebased to 100 · Jul 10 → Oct 9, 2026
XLRE10-yr TreasuryFed funds (upper)30-yr mortgageO‘ahu SF medianO‘ahu condo median
5.345%
10-yr, Oct 8 — highest since 2002
4.00%
Fed funds upper, after Sept hike
-6.4%
XLRE 90-day

Rates up, real estate down — the mirror image is the thesis: XLRE lives and dies on cap rates vs the 10-year. September's first hike in 3 years re-armed the headwind.

  • First hike in 3 years. Fed raised 25bp in September (Chair Warsh); markets price credible promises early.
  • Next fulcrum: September CPI Wed Oct 14 — a hot core print re-arms Oct 28 hike odds.

10-yr: FRED DGS10 Friday closes. Fed funds: upper limit of target range. XLRE dividend-adjusted. O‘ahu medians: HBR monthly (dashed; Sep latest). This is not investment advice.

FOOT

Mortgages vs O‘ahu prices

Freddie Mac PMMS bars + HBR monthly medians · 7 straight weekly gains
30-yr mortgage %SF median $Condo median $

September — Year over Year

Single-familyCondos
Closed sales293 +6.2%375 −8.1%
Median price$1.11M −3.9%$523K +2.8%
Days on market16 down from 2641 up from 40
Sold over asking31% up from 25%12% up from 8%
Pending sales236 −1.3%292 −28.6%
Months of supply3.2 down from 3.47.0 up from 6.4

Rates up seven straight weeks to 7.40% — and the SF median fell: $1.24M → $1.11M in September (-3.9% YoY). Condos held steadier at $523K (+2.8% YoY).

Mortgage: Freddie Mac PMMS weekly. Medians: HBR monthly (Sep latest). *Post-NAR-settlement rules bar buyer-agent comp from the MLS — 31% over asking ≠ bidding wars alone.

FOOT

What it means locally + next week

O‘ahu lens · Oct 12–16 ahead · all times ET
  • Defensive rotation. Utilities/energy/staples led, tech lagged — capital hiding at 7%+ mortgages, not hunting.
  • XLRE bounced but underwater. +1.96% is relief inside a −6% quarter. Watch whether the 10-yr breaks back below 5%.
  • Houses vs condos diverging. 16-day DOM for houses; 7 months of condo supply. Price to the 16-day market; negotiate condos like a buyer's market.

Next week — forward only

  • Wednesday at 8:30am Eastern, the September inflation report arrives. The core number — which excludes food and energy — is what the Federal Reserve watches most closely, and a hot reading would raise the odds of another rate hike on October 28. At 2:00pm, the Fed publishes its Beige Book, a collection of on-the-ground economic reports from businesses across the country.
  • On Thursday, Prologis (PLD) reports earnings before the market opens — the only watchlist real estate company reporting next week, giving the first real read on warehouse leasing at these rates. Also released: wholesale inflation and retail sales.
  • Federal Reserve officials speak all week, with Chair Warsh last on Friday before the pre-meeting quiet period begins October 17.

HBR September vintage (lagged); sector data current to Oct 9. This is not investment advice.

FOOT